Saturday, 8 November 2014

NFL Betting Trends - Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions Picks

Even a few weeks ago, Sunday’s game between Miami and Detroit looked like just a ho-hum affair, but both teams are surging into this matchup and, who knows, maybe it’s a Super Bowl preview. The Lions are 2.5-point NFL betting favorites.
Lions star wide receiver Calvin Johnson said he will play Sunday against the Dolphins after missing the last three games with an ankle injury. recovering from an ankle injury. It was in Week 3 when Johnson initially suffered his high right ankle sprain against the Green Bay Packers. He played on a limited basis the next two weeks before aggravating the injury in Week 5 against Buffalo. Running back Reggie Bush also will return from injury and start Sunday. The Lions come off a bye week and have staged huge come-from-behind wins in their past two games. The first-place Lions (6-2), who own a one-game lead over Green Bay atop the NFC North, won all three games in Johnson’s absence.
Johnson and Bush will match up with a familiar face Sunday — ex-teammate Louis Delmas. After being cut by the Lions in February, Delmas has started seven of eight games for Miami and was named AFC defensive player of the week after recording two tackles, a fumble recovery and an interception in Week 7 against Chicago.
Miami (5-3) has won three straight games, all by at least 13 points. The Fins crushed San Diego 37-0 last week. Ryan Tannehill threw for 288 yards and three scores, and Miami forced four turnovers. It was the Dolphins’ largest shutout victory since October 11, 1987 (42-0 vs. Kansas City). The Dolphins played with an emotional edge and earned their most impressive win of the season for Coach Joe Philbin, whose father passed a few days before the game.
The Dolphins are averaging 30.6 points in their past five games. They are fifth in the NFL in scoring over that stretch. The Lions are allowing 15.8 points a game — the only team in the NFL giving up fewer than 17 points a game.
DOLPHINS NOTES: In past 5, QB RYAN TANNEHILL has 1,283 pass yards & 10 TDs vs. 4 INTs for 104.1 rating. Club is 15-1 (.938) when Tannehill has 90+ rating. Aims for 5th in row with run of 20+ yards…In past 6, RB LAMAR MILLER has 531 scrimmage yards (413 rush, 118 rec.) & 5 rush TDs. Has rush TD in 5 of past 6…WR MIKE WALLACE had TD catch in only career meeting (10/11/09 with Pit.). Aims for 4th in row with TD vs. NFC. WR BRIAN HARTLINE (4,034) had 50 rec. yards last week & became 7th player in club history to reach 4,000 career. Last week, TE CHARLES CLAY led team with 65 yards on 5 catches with TD…In past 4, DE CAMERON WAKE has 4.5 sacks, FF & FR. Has 11 sacks, 2 FF & FR in past 9 vs. NFC. Has 58 career sacks & needs 2 to surpass JEFF CROSS (59.5) for 2nd-most in club history. S LOUIS DELMAS played 5 seasons in Detroit (2009-13) & posted 328 tackles, 6 INTs & 5 sacks. CB BRENT GRIMES has 3 INTs in past 2, incl. 2 vs. SD.
LIONS NOTES: QB MATTHEW STAFFORD led 21-point comeback win in Week 8. Is 1 of 3 QBs since 1966 to start 3 games in which team overcame 21+ point deficit to win. Since 2011, ranks 2nd in NFL with 16,871 pass yards. Has 120 pass TDs, most in team history…RB REGGIE BUSH played 2 seasons in Mia. (2011-12), rushing for 2,072 yards (1,036 per season) with 12 TDs & catching 78 passes for 588 yards with 3 TDs. RB THEO RIDDICK aims for 3rd in row with rec. TD. RB JOIQUE BELL has rush TD in 2 of past 3…WR CALVIN JOHNSON has 13 rec. TDs in past 14 vs. AFC. Has 84 catches for 1,521 yards (117 per game) & 11 TDs in past 13 vs. AFC. In past 16 at home, has 109 catches for 1,926 yards (120.4 per game) & 10 TDs. Since 2011, leads NFL with 5,485 rec. yards & 107.5 rec. yards per game. In past 5, WR GOLDEN TATE has 39 catches for 599 yards (119.8 per game) & 3 TDs, incl. 4 100-yard games. Has 15 catches for 250 yards (125 per game) & TD in past 2 vs. AFC…LB DE ANDRE LEVY had 30-yard INT-TD in last meeting. Leads team with 75 tackles. Has 7 INTs since 2013, most by LB. DT NDAMUKONG SUH had sack & FF in last meeting. In past 3, DE EZEKIEL ANSAH has 3.5 sacks & 2 FFs. CB CASSIUS VAUGHN had 45-yard INT in Week 8.
NFL betting trends: Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Dolphins are 29-11 ATS in their last 40 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Lions are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games in November. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Lions are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 10.

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