Wednesday 26 February 2014

Will Marcus Paige consider going pro?

North Carolina sophomore Marcus Paige hasn't really been in the 2014 NBA draft conversation to this point, but after a big year at North Carolina, the 6-foot point guard could have a tough decision to make after the season. Would he leave Chapel Hill for the NBA?

Judging by where Paige currently stands on Chad Ford's Big Board -- No. 69 overall and No. 14 among point guards -- the answer is probably no.

But by no means is it a sure thing that he'd pass on the draft for a third year at UNC. Just last year, in fact, we saw Shane Larkin, another 6-foot point guard, leave Miami after a huge sophomore season. Larkin went from scoring 7.4 points per game as a freshman to 14.5 as a sophomore. Paige, meanwhile, has gone from 8.2 PPG to 16.9, and done so at one of the biggest basketball schools in the land.

On Wednesday, ESPN Insider Paul Biancardi ranked Paige as college basketball's most improved player, which may be even more reason to believe the Iowa native could follow in the footsteps of another Iowan, Harrison Barnes, and leave UNC after two years for the bright lights and big dollars of the NBA.

I reached out to our own Jeff Goodman today for his take, given Paige's hot play and possible rising stock, and here's what he had to say: "I think Paige will stay another year and could be a guy who winds up moving into the equation for a late first-round pick a year from now. The hard thing is he had to play off the ball the majority of the time earlier this season, and he may have the same issue next season when Joel Berry arrives."
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NBA News More extended minutes for Brand

On Tuesday, Atlanta ruled out Paul Millsap (knee) and Pero Antic (ankle) for yesterday's game against Chicago as well as tonight's contest at Boston, but they held out some hope that Gustavo Ayon (shoulder) may be able to play against the Celtics. On Wednesday, Ayon was ruled out, putting the Hawks' frontcourt in a bad spot for at least one more game.

Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer elected to use Elton Brand and DeMarre Carroll as his two starting big men, and it'll be interesting to see if that's the case again tonight.

Even if Brand and Carroll remain the starters, with Mike Scott serving as the lone big man option off the bench, Budenholzer may have to find a way to reduce Brand's workload. The 34-year-old eclipsed 42 minutes in each of the last two games, and probably can't keep that up for too much longer without the strong likelihood of joining Millsap, Antic and Ayon on the injury list.

Look for more minutes tonight from Carroll and Scott, and possibly the NBA debut of 2013 second-round pick Mike Muscala -- a skilled 6-foot-11 big man who can flat-out shoot -- to help preserve Brand.

Could Pierre Thomas be cut by Saints

While New Orleans Saints management prepares itself for the Jimmy Graham situation, free agency and the draft, there are other personnel matters on the table, including the team's considerable depth at the running position. With Darren Sproles expected to remain a big part of the Saints' backfield and younger backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson ready to take on an increased role, would the team release its leader rusher in 2013, Pierre Thomas, this offseason?

With Thomas preparing to enter the final year of his contract, it's at least a possibility for the team. According to The Times Picayune's Larry Holder, the Saints reached out to Thomas' agent Tuesday to discuss the 29-year-old back's future with the Saints. The agent did not reveal the specifics of that phone call.

Thomas will count $2.9 million against the salary cap in 2014, and the Saints would save all of it should he be released. That said, the conversation also could be about an extension that could soften the financial blow to the Saints in 2014.

Thomas rushed 147 times for 549 yards (3.7 yards per carry) and three touchdowns in 2013. His 77 receptions were tops among running backs in the NFL, and he added three more touchdowns through the air.

Though it's definitely a possibility, it would be a fairly surprising move to see Thomas out in New Orleans. ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett thinks Thomas' job with the team is safe for now:
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Thursday 13 February 2014

NCAA basketball odds: No. 23 SMU at Rutgers

SMU will play its first game as a ranked team since 1984-85 on Thursday night when the surging Mustangs of coach Larry Brown visit Rutgers. SMU is a 7-point WagerWeb favorite.
 
Rutgers enters off a 79-69 win at South Florida on Saturday. Kadeem Jack scored a career-high 31 points. Myles Mack added 15 points and Wally Judge had 10 to help Rutgers (10-14, 4-7 American Athletic Conference) win for the first time in eight road games. Judge blocked two shots and had eight rebounds for the Scarlet Knights, who outrebounded the Bulls 37-30. Jack hit all 13 of his free-throw attempts and was 9 of 14 from the field. Rutgers made 21 of 26 free throws for 80.8 percent.
 
SMU had a very impressive 76-55 win against No. 7 Cincinnati on Saturday. Nick Russell had 15 points to go with a couple of big steals as SMU ended the Bearcats’ 15-game winning streak. It was the Mustangs’ third win over a Top 25 team in seven games since moving back into renovated Moody Coliseum on campus five weeks ago. Before their recent surge, the Mustangs (19-5, 8-3 American Athletic Conference) hadn’t defeated a ranked opponent anywhere since December 2003. They hadn’t had multiple wins against Top 25 teams in the same season since 1984-85, the last time SMU appeared in the poll. They reached as high as No. 2 that season.
 
SMU is second in the nation in field-goal percentage defense (1st American), holding opponents to 36.7 percent from the field. The Mustang defense is also holding opponents to 61.0 points per game, good for 17th in the NCAA (2nd American). SMU has held 24 of its last 33 (18 of 24 this year) opponents under 40% shooting. On the glass, the Mustangs have outrebounded 20 of 24 opponents this season.
 
On offense, the Mustangs are leading the conference in field goal percentage, shooting at a 49.6-percent clip in 2013-14 (7th NCAA). The Mustangs are also shooting 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, good for third in the conference. SMU is second in the league in assists per game at 15.5 (32nd NCAA), and is averaging 72.8 points per game. Additionally, the Mustangs have outscored 23 of 24 opponents in the paint by an average of 35.8-20.4.
 
On Jan. 21, SMU beat visiting Rutgers 70-56. Markus Kennedy scored 18 points and grabbed 10 rebounds to lead SMU. The Scarlet Knights missed 15 of their first 16 shots and went more than nine minutes without a field goal during the first half. Rutgers finished shooting 32.7 percent from the field.
 
WagerWeb trends: Mustangs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Mustangs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. American Athletic Conference. Mustangs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Scarlet Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Scarlet Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

NBA basketball odds: Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers

The first half of the NBA season comes to a close on Thursday night in the TNT nightcap when the Oklahoma City Thunder look to hand the Los Angeles Lakers their franchise-record seventh straight home loss. OKC is a 12-point favorite to do so on WagerWeb.
 
Oklahoma City has won 14 of its past 16 games to take control of the Western Conference’s top seed. It won 98-95 at Portland on Tuesday. Kevin Durant had 36 points and 10 rebounds as the Thunder evened the series against the Blazers 2-2 in their final regular-season meeting this year. Jeremy Lamb had 19 points, including a key 3-pointer with 1:38 left for the Western Conference-leading Thunder.
 
Durant and Serge Ibaka entered the game as the highest-scoring duo in the NBA over LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard but Durant didn’t even need Ibaka to outscore the Blazers duo by himself Tuesday. The two Blazers combined for 28 points. In the last 16 games, Ibaka is averaging 17.9 points on 61.1% shooting to go along with 8.4 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. Ibaka has scored 20+ points in six of his last 11 outings. Already this season, Ibaka has recorded 19 double-doubles (posted 15 double-doubles from all of last season).
 
The Lakers lost their second straight game Tuesday, 96-79 to Utah. Chris Kaman had 25 points and 14 boards for the Lakers, who have dropped nine of 11 overall and 21 of 26 since Dec. 21. The loss to Utah put Los Angeles in 14th place in the Western Conference, a half-game behind the Jazz and a game ahead of last-place Sacramento.
 
The Lakers’ top six scorers — Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Jordan Farmar, Nick Young, Jodie Meeks and Xavier Henry — are still on the shelf with injuries. Steve Nash played only 17 minutes and had to exit early for the second straight game because of nerve-root irritation in his left leg. Steve Blake and Kendall Marshall — L.A.’s backcourt to start the second half once Nash went out — combined to shoot 5-for-24. Nash is doubtful to play in this one.
 
L.A. trotted out its 26th starting lineup this season against a team that had won only 17 of its first 50 games, and then proceeded to blow a 15-point lead en route to its 34th defeat of the season. It also was the Lakers’ sixth straight loss at home, which ties a franchise record.
 
This is the second meeting of the season between the Lakers and Thunder. On Dec. 13 at home, the Thunder rolled 122-97. Durant had 31 points, eight rebounds and five assists, while currently injured Russell Westbrook added 19 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. Kobe had 13 assists but just four points and seven turnovers. The Thunder finished with a season-high 34 assists and outrebounded the Lakers 59-41.
 
The Lakers are 15-8 in their last 23 regular season games against Oklahoma City. At home, the Lakers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Thunder. L.A. is 17-11 all-time against Oklahoma City at Staples Center.
 
WagerWeb trends: Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Duke/UNC Betting Analysis

The Tobacco Road Rivalry will be renewed tonight as the 8th-ranked Duke Blue Devils (19-5, 8-3 ACC) take the short trip to Chapel Hill to face off against the unranked North Carolina Tar Heels (16-7, 6-4 ACC). While Duke is currently listed as a 2-seed in Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracketology, North Carolina still has work to do and is currently listed as an 8-seed.
 
According to our College Basketball betting trends, the Blue Devils, led by their freshman superstar Jabari Parker, opened as 3-point favorites at CRIS. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets the line has dropped to Duke -2 across the sports betting marketplace. This reverse line movement is an excellent sharp money indicator and suggests that wise guys and betting syndicates have been pounding the host Tar Heels.
 
The line graph below, which is included in all of our odds memberships, shows the line movement at CRIS since this game opened Tuesday afternoon.
 
Although North Carolina has won five straight games, they have struggled recently at home against Duke. The Tar Heels have lost four of their past five home games against the Devils and have failed to cover the spread in six of their past seven. The chart below, which is available on our matchups page, displays the head-to-head details from the last ten North Carolina vs. Duke meetings.

Monday 3 February 2014

Anderson Varejao to return to Lineup for Kings?

We wrote last week that any injury to Anderson Varejao, no matter how small, shouldn't be taken lightly. Since then, the 31-year-old center has sat out three games in a row with a knee contusion.

When can we expect the Cavaliers' big man back out on the court? Here's the latest.

Varejao is officially a game-time decision for Monday's matchup against Dallas, but after a week off the chances of him playing are probably a little better each day.

Varejao tells The Plain Dealer that the toughest aspect is playing through the pain of the knee injury, and playing with a knee brace that he'll wear once he returns.

If Varejao misses the game against the Mavericks, the Cavs next game is at home on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Lakers. Shop for 2014 NBA All Star Game Jerseys at NBAStore.com